AP

Africa passes 1M confirmed virus cases; true number far more

Aug 7, 2020, 5:53 AM

Workers prepare for a burial at the Olifantsveil Cemetery outside Johannesburg, South Africa, Thurs...

Workers prepare for a burial at the Olifantsveil Cemetery outside Johannesburg, South Africa, Thursday Aug. 6, 2020. The frequency of burials in South Africa has significantly increased during the coronavirus pandemic, as the country became one of the top five worst-hit nations. New infection numbers around the world are a reminder that a return to normal life is still far off. (AP Photo/Jerome Delay)

(AP Photo/Jerome Delay)

JOHANNESBURG (AP) — Africa’s confirmed coronavirus cases have surpassed 1 million, but global health experts say the true toll is likely several times higher, reflecting the gaping lack of testing for the continent’s 1.3 billion people.

While experts say infection tolls in richer nations can be significant undercounts, large numbers of undetected cases are a greater danger for Africa, with many of the world’s weakest health systems. More than 22,000 people have died of COVID-19.

The World Health Organization calls the milestone a “pivotal point” for Africa as infections in several countries are surging. The virus has spread beyond major cities “into distant hinterlands” where few health resources exist and reaching care could take days.

Immediately knowing they were at a disadvantage, African nations banded together early in the pandemic to pursue badly needed testing and medical supplies and advocate for equitable access to any successful vaccine. Swift border closures delayed the virus’ spread.

But Africa’s most developed country, South Africa, has strained to cope as hospital beds fill up and confirmed cases are over a half-million, ranking fifth in the world. The country has Africa’s most extensive testing and data collection, and yet a South African Medical Research Council report last week showed many COVID-19 deaths were going uncounted. Other deaths were attributed to other diseases as people avoid health centers and resources are diverted to the pandemic.

It’s all a warning for Africa’s other 53 countries of what might lie ahead. While dire early predictions for the pandemic have not played out, “we think it’s going to be here at a slow burn,” the WHO’s Africa chief, Matshidiso Moeti, said Thursday.

Just two African countries at the start of the pandemic were equipped to test for the virus. Now virtually all have basic capacity, but supplies are often scarce. Some countries have a single testing machine. Some conduct fewer than 500 tests per million people, while richer countries overseas conduct hundreds of thousands. Samples can take days to reach labs. Even in South Africa, turnaround times for many test results have been a week or longer.

“We are fighting this disease in the dark,” International Rescue Committee expert Stacey Mearns said. In addition, Africa has just 1,500 epidemiologists, a deficit of about 4,500.

African nations overall have conducted just 8.8 million tests since the pandemic began, well below the Africa Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s goal of 13 million per month. Countries would love to increase testing if only supplies weren’t being snapped up by richer ones elsewhere.

Africa CDC director John Nkengasong said estimating the true number of cases on the continent is “very tricky.” Some 70% of infections are asymptomatic, he has said. Africa’s young population also might be a factor. Without a dramatic increase in testing, “there’s much we don’t know.”

But some experts are making their best guesses.

Africa likely has at least 5 million infections, said Ridhwaan Suliman, a senior researcher at South Africa’s Council for Scientific and Industrial Research. He believes the true number in South Africa alone is at least 3 million. The country has conducted far more tests than any other in Africa — more than 3 million — but in recent days about 25% have come back positive. Because of shortages, South Africa largely limits testing to health workers and those showing symptoms.

Experts see South Africa as an indication of what’s to come elsewhere.

Sema Sgaier, an assistant professor of global health at Harvard and director of the Surgo Foundation, thinks the number of infections across Africa could be more than 9 million. The U.S.-based Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation puts the number at more than 8 million. And Resolve to Save Lives, led by Tom Frieden, former director of the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, estimates it could be 14 million.

For Resolve to Save Lives senior vice president Amanda McClelland, the more worrying number is not the overall cases but the health workers infected across Africa — now about 35,000. That affects care for everyone on a continent whose shortage of workers has been called catastrophic.

Reflecting the pandemic’s diverse nature across Africa, just five countries account for 75% of confirmed cases: South Africa, Egypt, Nigeria, Ghana and Algeria. Nigeria alone could have had close to 1 million cases by now if Africa’s most populous country hadn’t acted quickly, the Africa CDC’s Nkengasong said.

Still, with insufficient testing, people live with the fear that loved ones may have had the virus without knowing for sure.

In Burkina Faso, Yaya Ouedraogo lost his uncle and cousin in April. Both were in their 70s with a history of high blood pressure and diabetes, and both had complained of shortness of breath, fever and body pain, he said.

“They had all the symptoms of coronavirus, but in certain areas no one was investigating it and they didn’t get tested,” he said.

The WHO Africa chief has said officials don’t think the continent is seeing a “silent huge epidemic,” with thousands dying undetected, but she acknowledged under-reporting of cases.

“What we’d like to see — to be able to be really confident — is higher testing rates,” Moeti told reporters last week, and she criticized the “very distorted global market” in which richer countries have the bulk of testing materials while poorer ones scrape by on just hundreds of tests a day.

Moeti also worries about a related danger for which even less data exists: the number of deaths from diseases such as malaria, HIV and tuberculosis as resources are diverted to COVID-19.

Whatever Africa’s real coronavirus toll, one South African church has quietly been marking the country’s “known” number of deaths by tying white ribbons to its fence. The project’s founders say each ribbon really stands for multiple people.

Already, the Rev. Gavin Lock wonders about what to do when the length of fence runs out. Maybe they’ll change the ribbons’ color to represent 10 people, or 50.

“It’s a work in progress,” he said.

___

Associated Press writer Sam Mednick in Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso, contributed to this report.

___

Follow AP pandemic coverage at http://apnews.com/VirusOutbreak and https://apnews.com/UnderstandingtheOutbreak

We want to hear from you.

Have a story idea or tip? Send it to the KSL NewsRadio team here.

AP

WASHINGTON, DC - JANUARY 4: A view of the U.S. Supreme Court on Thursday morning January 4, 2024 in...

MARK SHERMAN

Supreme Court again confronts the issue of abortion, this time over access to widely used pill

Two years after the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade and cleared the way for bans or severe restrictions on abortion in many Republican-led states, abortion opponents on Tuesday will ask the high court to ratify a ruling from a conservative federal appeals court that would limit access to the medication mifepristone, which was used in nearly two-thirds of all abortions in the United States last year.

2 days ago

File - The Instagram logo is seen on a cell phone in Boston, USA, Oct. 14, 2022. Instagram has star...

Associated Press

New Instagram feature limits display of political content

Instagram has started an automatic clamp down on the amount of political content appearing in its users' feeds.

3 days ago

ghost army Congressional gold medal ceremony...

JAMIE STENGLE Associated Press

Ghost Army members who staged secret WWII battlefield deceptions awarded Congressional Gold Medal

Three of the seven known surviving members attended the ceremony at the U.S. Capitol.

7 days ago

Brigham Young Cougars center Aly Khalifa (50) shoots against the UCF Knights at the Marriott Center...

DAVE SKRETTA AP Basketball Writer

BYU’s Aly Khalifa heads into March Madness without food or water while observing Ramadan

It is a fast Khalifa is embarking on willingly, yet one that carries with it unusual challenges during the NCAA Tournament.

7 days ago

A JetBlue airplane is seen, March 16, 2017, at John F. Kennedy International Airport in New York....

The Associated Press 

JetBlue will drop some cities and reduce LA flights to focus on more profitable routes

JetBlue Airways will end service at several cities and reduce flying out of Los Angeles in a move to focus on stronger markets.

8 days ago

Two shades of purple tulips combine with a spring garden of emerging red-leafed lettuce. (Netherlan...

Mike Corder

AI robots are spotting sick tulips in Dutch bulb fields

As part of efforts to tackle the virus, there are 45 robots patrolling tulip fields across the Netherlands as the weather warms up.

8 days ago

Sponsored Articles

Mother and cute toddler child in a little fancy wooden cottage, reading a book, drinking tea and en...

Visit Bear Lake

How to find the best winter lodging in Bear Lake, Utah

Winter lodging in Bear Lake can be more limited than in the summer, but with some careful planning you can easily book your next winter trip.

Happy family in winter clothing at the ski resort, winter time, watching at mountains in front of t...

Visit Bear Lake

Ski more for less: Affordable ski resorts near Bear Lake, Utah

Plan your perfect ski getaway in Bear Lake this winter, with pristine slopes, affordable tickets, and breathtaking scenery.

front of the Butch Cassidy museum with a man in a cowboy hat standing in the doorway...

Bear Lake Convention and Visitors Bureau

Looking Back: The History of Bear Lake

The history of Bear Lake is full of fascinating stories. At over 250,000 years old, the lake has seen generations of people visit its shores.

silhouette of a family looking over a lake with a bird in the top corner flying...

Bear Lake Convention and Visitors Bureau

8 Fun Activities To Do in Bear Lake Without Getting in the Water

Bear Lake offers plenty of activities for the whole family to enjoy without having to get in the water. Catch 8 of our favorite activities.

Wellsville Mountains in the spring with a pond in the foreground...

Wasatch Property Management

Advantages of Renting Over Owning a Home

Renting allows you to enjoy luxury amenities and low maintenance without the long-term commitment and responsibilities of owning a home.

Clouds over a red rock vista in Hurricane, Utah...

Wasatch Property Management

Why Southern Utah is a Retirement Paradise

Retirement in southern Utah offers plenty of cultural and recreational opportunities. Find out all that this region has to offer.

Africa passes 1M confirmed virus cases; true number far more