Poll finds Utahns don’t want judges deciding congressional maps. Here’s what else they say

A new poll published on Thursday found an overwhelming number of Utah voters don’t want a judge to decide their congressional districts. But a majority also don’t want the Legislature to do it without an advisory body.

The poll, commissioned by conservative think tank Sutherland Institute, found that Utahns have nuanced views about the state’s redistricting saga over who should have the final say in approving new electoral boundaries.

When asked who should decide the boundaries for congressional districts, 71% of respondents opted for bodies elected by the people, state-level elected officials or county-level elected officials. Just 8% said judges.

“Utahns have made it clear: they overwhelmingly want their elected representatives — not the courts — leading the redistricting process,“ Utah House Speaker Mike Schultz told the Deseret News in a statement.

”This poll shows strong support for keeping the Legislature in the driver’s seat, where accountability and transparency guide the work. We’re committed to honoring that trust and ensuring Utah’s maps reflect the people we serve.”

A preference for allowing elected policymakers to determine new congressional maps was shared by members of both parties. Only 3% of Republicans and 17% of Democrats thought a judge should decide the boundaries.

This question was asked without any context about the yearslong legal battle that resulted in 3rd District Court Judge Dianna Gibson selecting a map drawn by nonprofit plaintiffs on Nov. 10 to replace the state’s current one.

Gibson acted on prior rulings that found the Legislature’s 2020 decision to amend the Proposition 4 initiative passed by voters in 2018 was unconstitutional, and that the 2021 map they drew themselves did not meet Prop 4 standards.

Prop 4 created a redistricting commission composed of members appointed by elected officials. The body recommended maps based on anti-gerrymandering criteria. Groups could sue if they didn’t believe the maps complied.

When given this context, 40% of voters said the Legislature should have no role in redrawing district maps at all. The remaining 60% said the Legislature should have some role, but were split on whether lawmakers should act alone.

Of those who thought the Legislature should have some role, 40% said lawmakers should draw maps with the help of an advisory committee, and 45% said lawmakers should pick a map drawn by the independent commission.

Another 15% of that group — or 9% of all respondents — said the Legislature should act alone in drawing congressional maps, compared to 85% of that group — or 51% of all respondents — who want a commission involved.

The poll was conducted in October among 623 registered Utah voters by Y2 Analytics, which often partners with Utah candidates, as well as local governments. The poll has a margin of error of +/- 3.9 percentage points.

What does this mean for Utah’s redistricting fight?

These results are not a clear win for critics or advocates of Prop 4, said Derek Monson, the chief growth officer at Sutherland Institute. It reveals Utahns are skeptical of the Legislature having sole redistricting power, and even more so of judges taking on that role.

While this may be read as support for lawmakers’ plans to appeal Gibson’s decision, it could also be a sign of caution to the Utah Republican Party, who have launched an initiative campaign of their own for voters to eliminate the language of Prop 4 entirely, according to Monson.

“Public opinion does seem to be pushing back on what either side is offering them in the debate,” Monson told the Deseret News. “And that kind of creates potential challenges for the ballot proposition on repealing Prop 4 if it’s just ‘Go back to kind of how it was before.’”

Monson interprets the poll as saying voters want congressional maps to be decided by individuals that they can hold accountable, and do not support processes that can lead to courts making the final call because of lawsuits calling into question Prop 4 compliance.

A majority of Utah voters want a third way, according to Monson, where the Legislature selects congressional district boundaries with the assistance of a commission — like Prop 4 originally called for — but without the legal precedent that allows judges to weigh in every time.

The balance Utahns appear to be looking for is a policy that creates a commission, “which people do generally support,” Monson said, “but that isn’t so clearly designed to move towards lawsuits to adjudicate the outcomes if there’s difference between what the Legislature decides and what the commission advises.”

But according to Elizabeth Rasmussen, the executive director of Better Boundaries, instead of showing support for Republicans’ efforts to reverse Gibson’s decision and repeal Prop 4, Sutherland’s poll reveals most Utahns support keeping the ballot initiative they passed in 2018.

“Let’s be clear about what this poll actually shows: an overwhelming majority of Utah voters support independent redistricting commissions, which is precisely what Prop 4 created,” Rasmussen told the Deseret News in a statement.

“Utah voters don’t want politicians drawing their own districts; they want independent oversight,” Rasmussen said about her view of the poll. “That’s what they voted for in 2018, and this poll confirms that’s still what they want today. The solution isn’t to repeal voter-approved redistricting reform. The solution is for the Legislature to finally follow the law voters passed.”