AP-NORC poll: About 3 in 10 US adults believe Israel has committed genocide against Palestinians

NEW YORK (AP) — After decades of reliable bipartisan backing for Israel, a new AP-NORC poll reveals a dramatic erosion of support for the longtime U.S. ally, with rising opposition from Democrats and signs of division among Republicans.

The survey by The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research arrives at a moment when a once-consensus foreign policy issue is increasingly polarizing Americans along partisan and generational lines, driven by criticism for Israel’s conduct nearly three years after the outbreak of its latest war with Hamas in Gaza.

About one-third of U.S. adults — including roughly half of Democrats — believe that Israel has committed genocide against Palestinians during the war in Gaza, an accusation that’s been leveled by some human rights organizations and vehemently denied by Israel and the U.S. government. About 2 in 10 Americans say Israel has not and the rest, about half, don’t know enough to say.

A similar share, 30%, of Jewish adults say Israel has committed genocide, although about half, 49%, say it has not.

Harold Kalmus, a 69-year-old Democrat from Arden, Delaware who describes himself as Jewish by birth, said he remembers being proud of Israel when he was younger. Not anymore.

“I realize that there is a threat from Hamas. And I realize they’re in a very difficult situation, but what they have done is just an unspeakable horror,” he said of Israel’s military action against the Palestinians. “They’re trying to wipe out a civilization as far as I’m concerned.”

The findings show sharply eroded views of Israel in the U.S., nearly three years after Hamas’ attack on Oct. 7, 2023, which left 1,200 people dead in Israel, mainly civilians, while 251 hostages were taken back to Gaza. More than 73,000 Palestinians have died in Gaza according to the Hamas-run Gaza Health Ministry, which doesn’t distinguish between civilian and militant deaths, including more than 1,000 killed since the beginning of the latest ceasefire. American sympathies had been shifting toward the Palestinians and away from the Israelis since around 2020, according to other polling, but has nose-dived since the latest war in Gaza began.

Many Americans, about 4 in 10, don’t know enough to say whether Israel’s immediate military response to Hamas’ attack or its ongoing military operations were justified. Among those who did have an opinion in each case, most say the initial retaliation was justified — but a majority think its current actions are not.

About three-quarters of Jewish adults said Israel’s initial response was justified, but only about 4 in 10 believe that about its ongoing operations.

Only about one-third of U.S. adults view Israel as an “extremely” or “very” important issue to them personally. But it’s been a searing topic in American politics as the relationship between the two countries remains tense, just four months before high-stakes midterm elections determine the balance of power in Congress for President Donald Trump’s final two years in office. Vice President JD Vance recently criticized Israeli leaders who have expressed frustration with Trump, while vocal critics of Israel recently defeated establishment-backed Democrats in New York and Colorado primaries.

Democrats’ support for Israel drops

The AP-NORC poll reveals a decisive shift within the Democratic Party.

About 58% of Democrats now say the U.S. is “too supportive” of the Israelis, up from 45% in an AP-NORC poll from January 2024 when former President Joe Biden was in office. That includes 51% of Jewish Democrats in the new poll.

Roughly 6 in 10 Democrats, 62%, say the U.S. is “not supportive enough” of the Palestinians, up from 49% in 2024. Younger Democrats — those 45 and younger — are still more likely than older ones to say that the United States is “not supportive enough” of the Palestinians, but older Democrats are catching up to their younger counterparts. About 57% of older Democrats now say the U.S. should do more for the Palestinians, up from 39% two years ago.

Joy Jennik, a 73-year-old Democrat from Brookfield, Wisconsin, said she didn’t have strong opinions about the U.S. relationship with Israel until after Hamas’ Oct. 7 attack.

Now, she believes Israel is guilty of genocide.

“The Gaza Strip, there’s not a lot left of it. Those poor people are barely living,” said Jennik, a retired home economics teacher.

GOP stays behind Israel, but less so among young Republicans

Just a sliver of Republicans, 13%, describe Israel’s actions as genocide, although there is an apparent age gap. About 2 in 10 Republicans under 45 say Israel has committed genocide, while about 1 in 10 Republicans ages 45 and older say the same.

Overall, 60% of Republicans describe the U.S. support for Israel as “about right.” Only about 2 in 10 Republicans say that the United States is “too supportive” of the Israelis, although Republicans under 45 are more likely to say this.

The share of Republicans overall who say the U.S. is “too supportive” of Israel has not changed meaningfully since 2024, but the share who say the U.S. is “not supportive enough” has shrunk from 39% to 15%.

Mike Cardona, a 70-year-old Republican from suburban Phoenix, said he’s pleased with the level of support that the U.S. is giving Israel and rejects the notion that Israel has committed genocide.

“I wish they’d gone in harder and better,” Cardona, a retired industrial supply salesperson said of Israel’s military action in Gaza. “Unfortunately, some innocents will be hurt, but Hamas and Hezbollah never took that into consideration when they were killing children and women in Israel.”

Netanyahu is broadly unpopular, while views of Mamdani are split

In interviews, several respondents emphasized that their criticism of Israel was focused on its leaders, especially Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who is perceived as closely aligned with Trump after repeated clashes with Democratic presidents.

Overall, only 20% of U.S. adults have a favorable view of the Israeli prime minister, while about twice as many, 38%, have an unfavorable view. About 41% don’t know enough to have an opinion.

Netanyahu is particularly unpopular among Jewish adults: about 6 in 10 view him unfavorably, while about one-third see him positively.

Younger adults, regardless of party, are more likely than older adults to say they don’t have an opinion about Netanyahu. But while older Republicans see Netanyahu more positively than negatively, younger Republicans’ views tilt unfavorably.

New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani has gained prominence as an outspoken critic of Israel, and 27% of U.S. adults have a favorable opinion of the 34-year-old democratic socialist. Another 28% of U.S. adults have an unfavorable opinion, while 44% don’t know enough to say.

Jewish adults, who overwhelmingly identify as Democrats, have a more positive view of Mamdani than of Netanyahu, with 44% viewing the New York City mayor positively, 39% viewing him negatively, and 17% saying they don’t know enough to say.

About half of Democrats overall have a favorable impression of Mamdani and only about 1 in 10 have an unfavorable view of him, while the rest, about 39%, don’t have an opinion.

Meanwhile, the U.S.-Israel relationship is not top of mind for many Americans as they think about the upcoming midterm elections.

For people like Michael Ripka, a 34-year-old stage hand from Casper, Wyoming who typically votes Republican, the economy is by far the most important thing on his mind.

“Everything is mad expensive,” he said. The conflicts in the Middle East, he added, is “100% a very big distraction.”

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Sanders reported from Washington.

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The AP-NORC poll of 3,040 adults was conducted June 11-17 using a sample drawn from NORC’s probability-based AmeriSpeak Panel, which is designed to be representative of the U.S. population. The poll included interviews with 1,022 Jewish adults. The margin of sampling error for adults overall is plus or minus 2.8 percentage points and the margin of sampling error for Jewish adults is plus or minus 5.0 percentage points.