Democrats could have a slight shot at flipping a US House seat in Utah under a new congressional map

SALT LAKE CITY (AP) — Utah’s Republican-led Legislature approved a revised congressional map Monday that could give Democrats an improved chance at flipping a seat as the party fights to topple the GOP’s slim majority in the U.S. House. But in a state overwhelmingly dominated by Republicans, it remains a long-shot that Democrats could win a district next year.

Republicans currently hold all four of Utah’s House seats.

In the redraw, two districts become slightly competitive for Democrats — one more than the other — but all four still lean Republican. The map places Democrat-heavy Salt Lake City in a single district that also would include rural areas, instead of dividing the city among multiple districts.

The districts still must be reviewed by a judge, who is expected approve a new map by November. A handful of Republican lawmakers joined Democrats in opposing the revised map.

In August, Judge Dianna Gibson struck down the congressional map adopted after the 2020 census because the Legislature had circumvented standards established by voters to ensure districts don’t deliberately favor a party, a practice known as gerrymandering.

The judge-ordered redraw comes as President Donald Trump has urged other Republican-led states to take up mid-decade redistricting ahead of the midterm elections to add winnable seats for the party.

Utah’s revised map creates some uncertainty in a state that was thought to be a clean sweep for the GOP. Nationally, Democrats need to net just three House seats next year to wrest control of the chamber from Republicans, who are trying to buck a historic pattern of the president’s party losing seats in the midterms.

Republican state Sen. Scott Sandall, a co-chair of the Legislature’s redistricting committee, said there are a lot of things they would have done differently if not for the time crunch. Still, he thinks the judge will have no reason to reject the map.

After taking public comment on several proposals, Republicans chose to move forward with what experts said is the least competitive option. Commenters appeared to favor a proposal submitted by Democrats until the Utah Republican Party sent out an email to rally support for the map now approved by lawmakers.

Democratic state Sen. Nate Blouin was scolded by Republican leaders on the Senate floor when he said he thinks it’s no coincidence that the map most favorable to Republicans was chosen. Sandall insisted the committee did not consider political data.

During Monday’s special session, Republicans also amended Proposition 4 — the voter-approved ballot initiative from 2018 that sparked the redistricting case — requiring each new district to have a partisan vote share similar to Utah’s recent statewide election results. Republican Gov. Spencer Cox signed it into law later Monday, and the voting rights groups involved in the legal challenge responded with a motion arguing lawmakers were trying “to change the rules of the game.”

Jonathan Cervas, a redistricting and voting rights expert at Carnegie Mellon University, ran the data from past elections in Utah against the redrawn map and found that Democrats would lose every time. That indicates that the map is not competitive, he said.

“Although it’s not as competitive as I think the plaintiffs would want, I think it’s far better than the map that currently exists — a stark improvement,” Cervas said.

The map thrown out by Gibson more significantly divided Salt Lake County — Utah’s population center and an island of Democratic support. Before the map was adopted in 2021, one district had traded hands between Democrats and Republicans. All have since elected Republicans by wide margins.

Gibson will now review the map approved by lawmakers and consider alternate proposals submitted by the voting rights groups. If she shoots it down, Cervas anticipates a legal battle over whether the court has authority or an obligation to put in place a map of its own.

If the revised map stands, redistricting analyst Jason Fierman thinks “it’s not insurmountable” for Democrats.

“An extremely strong candidate in a blue wave year might be able to possibly break this cycle of Democrats not winning any of these seats,” said Fierman, who has consulted on maps in other states. Former U.S. Rep. Ben McAdams could be one such candidate, he said. “This could really be a ‘game on’ moment for Democrats, but it would be challenging.”