Feds adjust Utah’s water outlook after warm, dry April affects spring snowmelt

SALT LAKE CITY — April didn’t provide Utah many favors after a complicated snowpack collection season.

Last month was tied for Utah’s 30th warmest April since 1895. It was also the state’s 32nd driest April during that span, per National Centers for Environmental Information data. Snowmelt runoff volume projections “have come down a bit” to account for the drier conditions, Natural Resources Conservation Service officials wrote in their latest water supply outlook published on Wednesday.

Parts of the state with already underperforming snowpack levels this season remained the most adversely impacted, but the new projections lowered expectations across regions with better snowpack, too, leading to potential ramifications for both the state water supply and the Great Salt Lake.

“The areas that we were concerned about before have definitely not improved, and the areas that were looking OK are a little bit more worrisome,” Laura Haskell, drought coordinator for the Utah Division of Water Resources, told KSL.com.

A new outlook

Streamflow projections have fallen as low as 7% to 35% of normal within the Southeastern Utah, Southwestern Utah and Escalante-Paria basins, while streamflows within the Upper Sevier are “only slightly better,” the report states. The Southwestern Utah Basin may only peak at 10% to 25% of normal.

Projections range from 50% to 82% of normal in the Price-San Rafael and Duchesne basins, showcasing how central Utah’s conditions are also rough, but not to the same extent. There’s a wider variability across Utah’s northern half, but it’s generally more favorable. The report notes that West Canyon Creek in western Utah County’s streamflow forecast has fallen to 28% of normal, while Provo River in Summit County was as high as 93%.

Haskell isn’t surprised about the new projections.

The spring snowmelt is a delicate process, which experts often compare to the fairy tale “Goldilocks and the Three Bears.” If it’s warm and dry, snow can melt too quickly; if it’s too cold, it doesn’t melt at all, both of which can cause water problems. It needs the right mix of warm and cold to help ensure the water in the mountain snow ends up in the creeks, streams and rivers that feed into the state’s lakes and reservoirs.

Last month didn’t provide the desired conditions.

“That early April was just so hot that the snowpack melted very, very quickly,” she said.

It compounded on issues already plaguing the snowpack. Nearly three-fourths of Utah remains in at least moderate drought, including nearly half — mostly in central and southern Utah — in severe or extreme drought, per the U.S. Drought Monitor. Drier soil moisture leads to more snowmelt runoff going underground to recharge groundwater than into streams.

Related: Utah’s snowpack was close to normal this year. Here’s why it still gets a ‘C’

While this week’s storm sparked a winter weather advisory for southwest Utah, it did very little for its snowpack, as meteorologists had anticipated. Its basin gained no additional snowpack, but the cooler, wetter weather helped delay the melt of what’s left, per Conservation Service data. As of Thursday, only about a tenth of its collection remains in the mountains after its snowpack peaked at about 53% of normal.

A quarter of the peak statewide snowpack remains, but April’s warmer and drier conditions have the state on pace to wrap the snowmelt earlier than its normal mid-June conclusion. Storms this late in the year, Haskell explains, are a welcome sight, but they improve soil moisture more than adding more water for reservoirs.

Utah’s water supply

The good news is that Utah’s reservoir system is about 86% full, exactly where it was last this time last year, per Utah Division of Water Resources data. The bad news is that the system may reach peak capacity soon, with the poorer outlook provided on Wednesday. Reservoirs that rely on high-elevation snowpack are most likely to still gain water until all the snow melts, meaning the system could peak lower than last year’s high of nearly 93%.

The report also lowered expectations for the Great Salt Lake, estimating that its southern arm could peak at 4,193.7 feet elevation, about one-third of a foot higher than its current level but 1½ feet below last year’s peak.

Utah will have enough water to function this summer, but Haskell says the new outlook highlights the need to conserve water this summer because only time will tell if this year is a one-off lousy season or the start of another dry cycle.

State experts have asked people to hold off on outdoor watering as long as possible to capitalize on recent storms instead of using reservoir water. Gov. Spencer Cox also issued a drought declaration for 17 counties that encourages cutting back on consumption. The state provides tips on when to water lawns and other ways to reduce water use.

“I urge all Utahns to be extremely mindful of their water use and find every possible way to conserve,” Cox said last month. “Water conservation is critical for Utah’s future.”