Utah consumer sentiment falls for second consecutive month

SALT LAKE CITY — For the second consecutive month, the Kem C. Gardner Policy Institutes reports that consumer sentiment in Utah has fallen. 

Their latest survey shows Utah consumer sentiment fell 8.0% in March. It registered at 88.1 in February, and in March it was 81.1.

The institute reported that a similar survey done by the University of Michigan showed an 11.9% decline in consumer sentiment among Americans.

According to Investopedia.com, consumer sentiment is:

a statistical measurement of the overall health of the economy as determined by consumer opinion. It takes into account how people feel about their current financial health, the health of the economy in the short-term, and the prospects for longer-term economic growth. It is widely considered to be a useful economic indicator.

“The Utah Consumer Sentiment index declined this month for a second consecutive month, led by declines in expectations for the economic outlook over the next five years and expectations for business conditions in the near future,” said Phil Dean, chief economist at the Gardner Institute. “U.S. Consumer Sentiment, as measured by the University of Michigan, has declined three consecutive months (23% decline since December), while Utah’s Consumer Sentiment has declined 11.2% since December.” 

Here is the transcript of our interview with Phil Dean. The interview was conducted on April 7, 2025 live on Jeff Caplan’s Afternoon News.

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Jeff Caplan: Tons are feeling worse about the economy. This is not me saying this. This is the Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute. They say consumer sentiment, which they measure once a month, fell 8% in the month of March. Joining us live Phil Dean, the chief economist at the Kem C. Gardner institute. Thanks for joining us.

Phil Dean, Kem C. Gardner Institute: Thanks for having me.

Caplan: Okay, so an 8% drop is that significant?

Dean: It definitely is a significant drop. I will say it’s not as dramatic as the national drop was, but it’s a decline from some of the levels the highest sense we’ve been doing the survey. We started this in 2020, early in the pandemic, and at the end of the year, it was at some of the peaks that we’ve seen and over the last several months, some pretty significant declines.

Caplan: Does this simply follow the stock market? Because the market was rising, rising at the end of the year, and consumer sentiment was, I guess, going up. Now it’s coming down as the market falls, is that the way it works?

Dean: So it’s not directly tied to the stock market, although I’m sure that that plays into it. Some it does tend to track headlines, and obviously stock market headlines are one of those. But it also, I think, reflects broader sentiment than just the stock market itself.

Caplan: So you ask people questions. It’s a survey. What kind of questions are they asked?

Dean: Yeah, so they’re asked essentially, how confident do you feel over the near term, so over the next year, what are you thinking about buying large purchases? Are you going to hold off on those? Are you going to make those? So it’s very much about their feelings about the economy, which sometimes matches up with hard economic data and sometimes doesn’t match up. It’s kind of interesting to look at that.

Caplan: Do consumers typically spend less money when the consumer sentiment index falls?

Dean: Historically that’s been the case. Over the last several years, it hasn’t been as good of a predictor as it had, had been historically. Historically, people, you know, in the aftermath of the pandemic, were really pessimistic about the economy, and they went out and spent like crazy. And so some of those historic relationships had broken down. I think it may be returning to more normal over the last year, year-and-a-half, where we are starting to see better alignment. But you know, one of the things out there right now, I think, is just the uncertainty about everything that’s going on. So it may not just be one thing, but people feeling uncertain, feeling, you know, not knowing what the future is going to hold.

Caplan: And these consumer sentiment numbers we’re talking about, the down 8%, this is all before we got to the tariffs last week, I would imagine.

Dean: Yes, so tariffs were on the table as an item of discussion, and some of the, you know, early tariffs with Canada and Mexico had kind of worked through some of this process. But this is, you know, the March data, so that the big things have been going on the last week aren’t going to be incorporated into these numbers, I’m really interested see next month, when we release what it’s going to show. My sense is, if I were to predict, we may see a further decline in sentiment.

Caplan: And we’ll speak with you then, Phil Dean, the chief economist at the Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute. Thanks so much.

 

 

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