Extreme heat is forecast for Utah this weekend, but is monsoon relief on the other side of it?

SALT LAKE CITY — Many daily high-temperature records, including possibly the highest temperature ever recorded in Utah’s capital city, are in jeopardy of falling this weekend as a strong high-pressure system parks over the West.

However, there’s growing optimism that monsoonal moisture will provide relief from the heat at the other end of the system.

“This is obviously bad for intensifying drought, but typically, these kinds of heat spells do precede the onset of the monsoon, and we’re pretty confident that’s going to occur during the next two weeks,” said Brad Pugh, a forecaster for the National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center, during a panel discussion about the Western drought on Wednesday.

Feeling hot, hot, hot

Last month continued Utah’s warm trend, becoming the ninth-warmest June since at least 1895, per federal climate data released on Thursday. Nine months in, and Utah’s 2026 water year is on track to be the warmest — by a wide margin — and 29th driest over the past 131 years.

July has already continued where June left off, but this weekend will be the hottest it’s gotten so far this year.

A strong high-pressure system is forecast to move toward the Four Corners this weekend, creating a heat dome over the Great Basin. It’s expected to boost high temperatures across Utah’s northern half from the mid-to-upper 90s on Thursday to 100 or higher this weekend and into early next week, said KSL meteorologist Matt Johnson.

Temperatures in Salt Lake City could near the highest temperature ever recorded. It has reached 107 degrees five times since 1960, three of which have occurred since 2021.

Temperatures could reach 110 degrees in the lower-elevation parts of southeast and southwest Utah this weekend, including St. George and Moab. Even higher-elevation communities like Park City could see temperatures in the mid-90s.

Overnight lows are expected to remain in the low- to mid-70s for many areas, too.

The National Weather Service issued a series of extreme heat warnings covering most of Utah, lasting from Saturday to early Tuesday.

Many communities are already preparing for the heat wave. Salt Lake County provides cool zones for the general public on extreme-heat days.

Hotter, drier weather will likely further dry up the state, adding to fire concerns. Wildfires have already burned over 360,000 acres in Utah this year, the most land it has lost to fire since 2018.

Triple-digit heat could linger across the Wasatch Front into Monday, but weather models hint at slightly cooler temperatures emerging while storm probabilities increase as the week continues.

“Luckily, this one is a long-duration heat wave,” Johnson said.

Is the monsoon arriving?

Utah has received a few helpful storms over the past few weeks, including on Wednesday, from small low-pressure systems passing over high-pressure systems, but has yet to tap into the deep oceanic moisture that can alleviate some drought worries.

The Western monsoon has gotten off to a slow start in the West, likely because of the strong El Niño pattern that has now developed, which often delays the start of the summer storms, said Mike Crimmins, a climate science professor at the University of Arizona.

“We have seen that weak start transition fairly quickly,” he said.

Weather models now indicate that the high-pressure system will slide northeast next week, allowing dense water vapor from the gulfs that border the Atlantic and Pacific oceans to move into the Southwest, including Utah.

 

That’s water available for thunderstorm formation, which can develop into productive scattered thunderstorms with strong rain totals in short periods. Johnson and Pugh both point out that seven-day models have now hinted at this for the past week, adding to confidence that monsoons are finally coming.

“It’s looking like a signature setup as far as monsoons are concerned,” Johnson said, noting that they’ll likely begin in Utah’s southern mountains before reaching other parts of the state.

Rain totals are difficult to project because monsoonal storms are often scattered, meaning some communities benefit from rain more than others. Some storms can produce stronger totals than others, depending on the right conditions.

How it can help conditions

The Climate Prediction Center’s long-range models have consistently indicated that Utah could benefit the most from these storms this summer, suggesting this could be the predominant pattern over the next few weeks and months.

Utah’s average soil moisture levels are close to a record low, and low levels can increase heating, which can enhance monsoonal storms, Pugh explained.

That would be helpful, considering Utah’s record-low snowpack that has now translated into high fire danger.

Approximately 95% of the state remains in severe or worse drought. Experts caution that drought will likely continue in Utah and across the West even with a good monsoon, but it could slow down the fire season — even if it does open the risk of flash flooding at burn scars and other prone areas.

‘It’s going to be pivotal in dampening down a fire season that, if not for the monsoon setting up, would really run rampant,” Johnson said.