Fed leaves interest rate unchanged but with 3 dissents as Warsh praises ‘good family fight’

WASHINGTON (AP) — The Federal Reserve left its key interest rate unchanged Wednesday despite persistently high inflation and a spike in energy prices caused by the Iran war.

The Fed’s rate-setting committee reached the 9-3 decision after two days of deliberations, marking the fifth straight meeting at which the benchmark rate was kept at around 3.6%.

Dissenting in favor of a quarter-point interest rate hike were Beth Hammack, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland; Neel Kashkari, president of the Minneapolis Fed; and Lorie Logan, president of the Dallas Fed.

In reaction to the dissents, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh told reporters at a press conference following the Fed’s announcement, “I asked for a good family fight and I got one.”

Inflation has been stuck above the central bank’s 2% target for more than five years. The Iran war has generated uncertainty over the economic outlook and has driven energy prices higher, intensifying inflationary pressure and creating a quandary for Fed policymakers. Hammack, Kashkari and Logan had previously called for or signaled that they would be open to raising rates to combat high prices.

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Warsh said in the time between the two latest Fed meetings, the market has reacted to real economic data and the reduction in forward guidance from the central may have played a role in that. The market is “learning to play the ball and not the referee,” Warsh said. The new Fed chair has voiced criticism that his predecessors at the Fed made the markets too dependent on signals from the Fed on the direction of interest rates.

While traders on Wall Street saw a 33% chance the Fed would hike rates Wednesday to tamp down inflation, most expected policymakers to hold off, reluctant to risk disrupting financial markets. But 76% foresee a rate hike in September. A month ago, only 59% of traders expected a September rate increase, according to data from CME.

Fed officials likely want to see more economic data before changing the rate. On Thursday, the Commerce Department delivers the first look at April-June economic growth and it will also publish the Fed’s preferred inflation measure – the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index – for June.

Adding uncertainty to the Fed’s decision-making process is the rising violence in Iran. The price of oil briefly blasted past $100 a barrel last week on intensifying fighting. It’s since settled down on hopes the United States and Iran can find some way to reduce tensions.

Yet early Wednesday, Jordan intercepted missiles launched from Iran early just hours after the U.S. military said it knocked down another Iranian barrage launched against American forces in the Middle East, ending a brief pause in fighting.

After the U.S. and Israel attacks on Feb. 28, Iran shut down the Strait of Hormuz – through which a fifth of the world’s oil and natural gas pass. That caused the greatest disruption in oil supplies in history and sent energy prices surging. They’ve since bobbed up and down depending on the ever-changing state of the conflict and negotiations to de-escalate it, but the average cost for a barrel is $10 to $15 more today than it was at this point last year.

Inflation has exceeded the Fed’s 2% target since early 2021 when the U.S. economy overheated as it roared back from COVID-19 lockdowns. Inflation peaked at just over 9% in mid-2022 and began to drop in the face of 11 rate hikes by the Fed in 2022 and 2023. But progress has more or less stalled.

Besides the Iran war, other factors adding to inflation pressure are President Donald Trump’s tariffs on foreign goods and a surge of investment in data centers to power artificial intelligence, which is driving up the cost of computer chips and equipment and electricity.

So-called core inflation – which excludes volatile food and energy prices – cooled in June, partly because apartment rents aren’t rising as fast as they had been. And a temporary drop in gasoline prices last month also helped contain overall inflation.

But several Fed policymakers have been arguing that the Fed will have to raise rates to return inflation to the 2% target.

“Sternly staring at inflation until it melts before our withering gaze is not an option,’’ Christopher Waller, an influential member of the Fed’s governing board, said in a speech this month.