Record warmth to end with arriving storm, but has Utah’s snowpack already peaked?

SALT LAKE CITY — Records have been tied or broken all across Utah in recent days as a high-pressure system brought late-spring temperatures in early spring.

The thermometer reached 80 degrees Fahrenheit in Provo both on Wednesday and Thursday, breaking and matching previous records set three years ago. Alta, Cedar City, Kanab, and Spanish Fork have all broke or tied records also set during a similar unseasonably warm late-March event in 2022.

However, Utah’s run of temperatures 20 degrees above normal is coming to an end, as another active round of storms returns to the Beehive State. High temperatures are forecast to drop back down into the upper 50s and low 60s across the Wasatch Front on Friday before a round of valley rain and mountain snow arrives, says KSL meteorologist Matt Johnson.

The extra mountain snow comes as Utah’s snowpack season nears its end, but state meteorologists believe snowpack levels may have already peaked for the winter.

Storms return

Winds picked up on Thursday, bringing in warm and dry air from the south ahead of a cold front coming in from the Pacific Northwest.

Johnson said some scattered showers are possible — especially in southeast Utah — ahead of the cold front, which is expected to make its way into the state by Friday evening. It will bring in more valley rain and mountain snow across most of the state, the brunt of which is forecast to arrive Saturday morning before picking up in the afternoon.

“We could even see some of these showers linger into Saturday night and Sunday morning, coming in off the Great Salt Lake, because we’re going to put moist and very cool air over the relatively warm lake,” he said, adding that those additional showers will impact the Wasatch Front region the most.

National Weather Service models indicate that the storm could deliver up to another half-foot or more of snow in the Wasatch Mountains by Sunday afternoon, with over a 60% probability of at least 8 inches of snow in Alta.

KSL Weather models suggest the storm has the potential to bring between 0.10 and 0.33 inches of precipitation from Logan to Cedar City, but Johnson said some areas could see higher totals. The southern Wasatch Front and Uinta Basin could end up with the most precipitation, while central Utah could also end up with decent accumulations.

High temperatures are expected to remain in the 50s across the Wasatch Front over the weekend, aligning more with the region’s late-March normal. High temperatures near St. George are also forecast to drop from the 80s on Thursday to upper 60s and low 70s over the weekend.

Another spring storm is expected to arrive early next week.

Full seven-day forecasts for areas across Utah can be found online, at the KSL Weather Center.

A snowpack peak?

The additional mountain snow comes as Utah’s snowpack has started to melt, potentially peaking about a week earlier than the 30-year normal.

Utah’s statewide snowpack reached 14.3 inches of snow water equivalent on Monday, but it has since dropped 1.2 inches, according to Natural Resources Conservation Service data updated on Thursday. Jonathan Jennings, a meteorologist at the Utah Division of Water Resources, said he’s not sure if the total will surpass 14.3 inches with warmer, smaller storms in the immediate forecast.

“With the warm week we have had, I don’t anticipate our snow water equivalent to make a rebound above what has already melted in the last couple of days,” he said in a state snowpack update.

Monday’s high point was 88% of the state’s median peak. If that is indeed the peak, it would mark the state’s first below-normal snowpack after back-to-back productive water years.

The Great Salt Lake basin snowpack, a representation of Utah’s northern half, has also started to slide after topping out at 95% of its annual peak earlier this week. Brian Steed, Utah’s Great Salt Lake commissioner, called it “remarkably average” on Tuesday, adding that it was better than what he had feared after a slow start to the season.

It’s been a different story elsewhere. Candice Hasenyager, director of the Utah Division of Water Resources, called southern Utah’s collection “dismal,” as areas have peaked at 52% of the median average within the southwestern Utah basin.

About 95% of the state’s water supply comes from the snowpack collection and the spring snowmelt process. What helps is that Utah’s reservoirs remain about 82% full statewide, which should help the state overcome any snowpack shortages.

However, Hasenyager said residents should find ways to cut back on water in case the state goes on another run of below-normal snowpack seasons in the future.

“Let’s conserve this summer and keep water in our reservoirs,” she said.