BYU study shows Eagles may be playing “riskier” than the Chiefs on Sunday

SALT LAKE  — The Philadelphia Eagles might take more risks than the Kansas City Chiefs on Super Bowl Sunday according to a recent BYU study.

The study analyzed NFL play-by-play data between 2014 and 2022, to determine which coaches tend to be more conservative on fourth downs, and which coaches are riskier.

BYU study found Eagles, Chiefs coaches tolerate risk differently

NFL coaches have to make a lot of tough decisions during games. Especially whether or not to “go for it” on a fourth-down, rather than punting the ball away or settling for a field goal.

The study took a different approach with the statistics. Rather than trying to decide what coaches should do on fourth-down, the researchers assumed the coaches’ decisions were always the right choice.

This view helped researchers determine different risk factors that tend to drive coaches’ decisions.

“Usually people are looking at the fourth down to estimate what coaches should do, what’s the optimal thing to do. We wanted to ask ‘can we quantify coaches’ risk preferences,'” said Nate Sandholtz, BYU statistics professor.

Results varied, but there were similarities

Results varied for each coach analyzed, but there were some common patterns.

“Across the board, coaches play conservatively in their own half, there’s just very little variation between coaches. Whereas you have a lot of variation in coaches’ risk tolerances once they’re in the opponent’s half of the field,” said Sandholtz.

Other common risk factors that played a role in a coaches decision include how much time is left in the game, where the team is on the field, yards to a first-down, and a discreet level of win probability.

The research found that coaches have become bigger risk-takers over time. However, points are still being left on the field.

“Choosing to kick field goals or punt”

“There’s kind of an optimal level of risk tolerance. And in general, coaches are just playing more conservatively,” said Sandholtz. “[They’re] choosing to kick field goals or punt more often than the statistical models would suggest that they should in order to maximize the probability of winning a game.”

Unfortunately for some fans, coaches are not robots. They may have more factors in their mind than winning or losing when making a gametime decision.

“It’s not always just the probability of winning the game that they care about. There’s reputation on the line. There’s the perception of owners, general managers, fans even. And then they’ve got prior experience, prior biases,” said Sandholtz.

Even the robots that analyze aren’t always perfect.

“These statistical models make simplifying assumptions,” he said. “Sometimes coaches have information that the model doesn’t, like the strength of the defense that they’re going against, or the strength of their own kicker relative to the league average.

“In that sense, [coaches] have an advantage over the statistical models,” Sandholtz said.

Data shows the gap is shrinking between NFL analyst suggestions and coaches real-time decisions.

How did the Chiefs and Eagles rank? 

Overall, Philadelphia Eagles head coach Nick Sirianni was ranked the sixth riskiest coach in the league on fourth-downs. While Kansas City Chiefs head coach Andy Reid is somewhere in the middle of the pack.

If the data stays true through Sunday, this means we are likely to see the Eagles make some riskier fourth-down play calls than the Chiefs.

Data clarifications

Not all head coaches make offensive play calls in the NFL.

Chiefs head coach Andy Reid makes the team’s offensive play calls. Kellen Moore is the Eagles offensive coordinator.

Statistics were broken up for teams with varying head coaches from 2014 to 2022.

For example, Nick Sirianni became head coach for the Eagles in 2020. Data for his risk tolerances were determined from Eagles play-by-play data from the 2020-2022 seasons.